There has been some discussion in my dear colleague Anthony Steele's blog about World of Warcraft and online communities.
I'll confess now - I'm more of a fan of World of Warcraft (WoW) than I am of Second Life (SL), but whilst I think WoW will beat SL this time around (mainly because the content is so compelling), I think the suggestion that one should bet on one over another is specious.
Why?
WoW has great content and beautiful scenery, sure, but it follows a publishing model of having a tiny (compared to the playerbase) group of people making the content. The game can get repetitive, and there was a trend for people to leave the game in the months leading to the expansion release in January this year. Moreover, Blizzard has cut the price of the game from £34.99 to £14.99. Whilst expansions each year ad infinitum are promised, I'm not so sure this will happen once the subscriber churn hits a certain level.
SL's approach is to create a platform that people can use to create content. WoW is dependent on an army of developers to make the content for the players. Many of the players are frustrated that the WoW developers aren't listening to them and incorporating their ideas.
What we're learning from social computing is that user-generated content is what keeps people coming back for more and generates self-reinforcing network effects. Whilst the platform may become outmoded (the graphics that we're capable of viewing will always improve), the platform can be replaced and the community can migrate (as happens when MMOs die).
WoW and SL are very different and very similar. The former is a game with a community that has formed around it, partly because certain goals in the game are unachievable without teamwork and a community spirit. The latter is a community that has built a "game" around it, where there are no goals and the community is part of the raison d'être.
People increasingly want the freedom to make their own content. On the other hand, there are still a lot of people who want to be entertained and have content created for them.
I see the future moving more towards a hybrid model that incorporates the best of both World of Warcraft (excellent content whilst it lasts, good technical support and psychological devices to keep you coming back) and Second Life (massive flexibility in player capabilities, user-driven content, pay-as-you-go subscription model).
I don't know how incredibly fast our infrastructures will be, but perhaps this will become the way we see the Web - as a series of massive userbase, rich and immersive applications, places where you really can browse the shops, for example, with the boot-leather saving ability to fly between them...